Summer Media Release 2012

Comprehensive Assessment Forecasts

Adequate Electricity Supplies for this Summer

(Assessment covers New England, the City and State of New York and Eastern Canada)

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) today released the results of its annual summer reliability assessment. The comprehensive assessment projects that the region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

The forecast NPCC coincident peak demand for the summer (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) is 1.3% lower than last summer’s forecast due to slower than anticipated economic recovery and the effectiveness of ongoing conservation, efficiency and demand response programs. NPCC expects the region to have over 1,100 megawatts (MW) of net additional generating resources since last year’s summer peak period.

“The increase in NPCC system generating capacity, coupled with a lower demand forecast, provides for a more than adequate supply of electricity throughout the summer period,” said Edward Schwerdt, President and CEO of NPCC. “In addition, new transmission equipment along the Michigan-Ontario border significantly improves the overall reliability and efficiency of the system on a day-to-day basis,” added Schwerdt.

For New York City and throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast. Ontario is also projected to have sufficient resources, and while potential local reliability challenges have been identified within New England, overall resources are projected to be adequate in that area as well. Finally, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity demand by a wide margin. Both of these areas are winter peaking.

“Operating procedures are available to maintain reliability for the unlikely simultaneous combination of severe system conditions – such as reductions in anticipated resources or delays of expected transmission projects – coincident with higher than expected electricity demand from a wide-spread, prolonged heat wave with high humidity,” said Schwerdt.

The NPCC assessment utilizes probabilistic methods to evaluate thousands of simulated weather and system conditions. The simulations included stressed operating conditions, such as unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within regions, the unavailability of peak load relief from demand-response programs, and delays in the expected in-service dates of planned generation and transmission projects.

A summary of the NPCC 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment is available at: www.npcc.org

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