NPCC Summer 2013 Reliability Assessment Overview

Adequate Summer Electricity Supplies Projected

The comprehensive reliability assessment conducted by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) projects that the region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience, unexpected plant outages, transmission constraints between and within regions, implementation of operating procedures and estimated impact of demand response programs.

The assessments indicate that the NPCC geographic area (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity even during periods of extreme weather or severe system conditions.

Extreme weather conditions are considered to be wide-spread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity and near record temperatures.

Severe system conditions considered in this assessment included in-service delays of planned units and transmission facilities, extended unit maintenance, higher than expected unit outages, reductions in the success of demand-response programs and operating limitations assumed in neighboring regions.

Only under the unusual situation where this severe set of system conditions occur coincidently with extreme weather conditions would the implementation of a limited number of operating procedures and programs be anticipated to keep electricity supplies and demand in balance.

Summary of Key Findings

A total of 1,607 MW of new capacity¹ has been installed since last summer which includes projects expected to be in service over the course of this summer period. No delays to the in-service dates of new generating capacity are anticipated. Considering retirements and mothballing of 1,812 MW, the resultant net change in NPCC generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is - 205 MW.

For New York City and throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast this summer. Since the summer of 2012, the Marble River I & II units (215 MW) were added to the New York system for a total of 215 MW. Changes in New York generation since the summer of 2012 include the Dunkirk units 3 & 4 (mothballed - 435 MW), Kensico (inoperable - 3 MW), and the Danskammer retirement (537 MW). With the expected Niagara Biogen (mothballed - 51 MW), the Montauk Diesels retirement (6 MW) and Dunkirk No. 2 (mothballed - 100 MW) changes, the total retirements/mothballed resources are ~1,133 MW. The resultant net change in New York generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is -918 MW.

Ontario is projected to have a sufficient supply of electricity this summer. Since the summer of 2012, the Conestogo Wind Energy Centre 1 (69 MW), the Summerhaven Wind Energy Centre (125 MW), the Thunder Bay Condensing Turbine Project (40 MW), the Erieau Wind (99 MW), the East Lake St. Clair Wind (99 MW) have been added for a total of 432 MW. No retirements occurred or are anticipated for the summer period. The resultant net change in Ontario generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is +432 MW.

New England expects to have a sufficient supply of electricity this summer. Since the summer of 2012, 155 MW of new wind generating capacity has been added to the New England system; with 24 MW of additional generation (Bucksport Unit G4) for a total of 179 MW. With no retirements, the net change in New England generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is +179 MW.

Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces have more than an adequate supply of electricity forecast for the summer period. Both of these areas are winter peaking. Normal hydro conditions are expected for the 2013 summer period.

Since the summer of 2012, Hydro-Québec Production has added 577 MW of wind projects and 135 MW of small hydro & biomass projects for a total of 712 MW. With the retirement of the Gentilly Nuclear Unit 2 (675 MW) the resultant net change in Québec generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is +37 MW.

Since 2012 summer, the Maritimes have added the Port Haweksbury Biomass unit (61 MW) and 8 MW of wind generation for a total of 69 MW. Considering the various rerates and postponed wind projects (4 MW), the resultant net change in the Maritimes generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is +65 MW. In addition, reliability is enhanced by the return of the Pt. Lepreau nuclear unit (660 MW) on October 23, 2012, after a five year refurbishment.

Projected NPCC Load

The non-coincident (sum of the individual NPCC area) forecast peak demand for NPCC during the summer of 2013 is 110,635 MW (May – September period).

More importantly, the coincident NPCC 2013 summer peak demand forecast of 107,382 MW is expected to occur during July. This forecast is 330 MW (~0.3%) more than last year’s forecast coincident NPCC peak demand of 107,052 MW. Several factors drive this year’s slightly higher summer peak demand forecast, most notably the on-going benefits of conservation, efficiency and demand response programs.

Nevertheless, ambient weather conditions remain the dominant variable in forecasting peak demand during the summer months. Historically, the peak loads and temperatures between New England and New York have a high correlation due to the relative locations of their respective load centers. Depending upon the extent and duration of a summer weather system, there is a potential for the Ontario summer peak demand to be coincident with New England and New York.

New England

The Independent System Operator of New England’s (ISO-NE’s) forecast summer 2013 peak demand is 26,690 MW, assuming historically-based expected summer peak weather conditions. This forecast takes into account a reduction of ~1,150 MW for passive demand resources (energy efficiency & conservation). The 2013 forecast of peak demand is 228 MW (~0.9 %) higher than the corresponding 2012 forecast of 26,462 MW.

New York

The forecast peak load for summer 2013 by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is 33,279 MW, which is 16 MW lower than the forecast of 33,295 MW of summer 2012.

Ontario

The 2013 summer peak Ontario demand forecast by the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (the IESO) for ‘weather normal’ conditions is 23,275 MW, and includes the reductions due to conservation initiatives, growth in embedded generation, time of use rates, and slow economic recovery. The forecast is 134 MW (~0.6%) lower that last summer’s forecast ‘weather normal’ peak demand of 23,409 MW.

Québec

The forecast 2013 summer peak load for Québec is 21,115 MW for the week beginning August 11, 2013. The Québec overall 2013 forecast is approximately 127 MW (~0.6 %) higher than the corresponding summer 2012 forecast of 20,988 MW. It should be noted, however, that Hydro-Québec’s system is winter peaking. Since some heating load remains on the system in early May and picks up again in late September, the summer peak for Québec may occur around those times.

Maritime Provinces

A 2013 summer peak load of 3,176 MW is forecast for the Maritime Provinces for the week beginning September 1, 2013. The 2013 forecast peak is 216 MW (~6.4 %) lower than last year’s corresponding forecast summer peak of 3,392 MW. The Maritime Provinces are a winter-peaking area; forecast peaks for the shoulder months are normally higher than the summer period.

Transmission and Resource Adequacy Summary

NPCC 2013 Summary

During the NPCC forecast coincident peak load week (beginning July 7, 2013), the overall spare operable capacity (capacity over and above reserve requirements) for NPCC is estimated to be 16,674 MW. A portion of this spare operable capacity is in the Québec and Maritime Provinces. The transfer capability between the Québec and the Maritimes Provinces to the remainder of NPCC will not permit the usage of all this forecast spare operable capacity. As a result, the spare operable capacity is reduced to 12,555 MW.

The week beginning June 23rd represents the week with the lowest forecast operable capacity margin (spare operable capacity less transfer capability limitations); 12,063 MW is estimated to be available. This is not the same week of the forecasted NPCC coincident peak demand.

The sizable margins forecast for NPCC this summer tend to counteract any negative impacts that delays to the facilities described below could have to the overall NPCC reliability assessment.

New England

Based on the 2013 load forecast (50% chance of being exceeded) and projected available capacity for the summer 2013 period, weekly operable capacity margins ranging from 300 MW to 4,500 MW are projected. These margins do not include the short-term capacity and energy purchases from neighboring systems that are anticipated to be available.

Supply-Side Resources

Since the summer of 2012, 155 MW of new wind generating capacity has been added to the New England system; with 24 MW of additional generation (Bucksport Unit G4) for a total of 179 MW.

ISO New England’s total wind capacity for 2013 summer is 778 MW, with 97 MW of that amount counted toward installed capacity.

Demand Response Resources

For the 2013 summer, New England has 701 MW of active demand resources that are expected to be available on peak. The active demand resources consist of real-time demand response and real-time emergency generation, which can be activated with the implementation of ISO-NE Operating Procedure No. 4 - Action during a Capacity Deficiency (OP 4). These active demand resources can be used to help mitigate an actual or anticipated capacity deficiency. OP 4 Action 2 is the dispatch of Real-Time Demand Resources, which is implemented in order to manage operating reserve requirements. Action 6, which is the dispatch of Real-Time Emergency Generation Resources, may be implemented to maintain 10-minute reserve.

In addition to active demand resources, there are 1,150 MW of passive demand resources (i.e. energy efficiency & conservation), which are treated as demand reducers in this report. These include installed measures (e.g., products, equipment, systems, services, practices and/or strategies) on end-use customer facilities that result in additional and verifiable reductions in the total amount of electrical energy used during on-peak hours. The amount of energy efficiency is based on capacity supply obligations in the Forward Capacity Market.

Transmission

The New England transmission system is anticipated to be sufficient for the 2013 summer period. Six, 345 kV transmission system enhancements are expected for the 2013 summer period. Most of these additions are associated with the 345 kV transmission line segments that are part of the Greater Springfield, MA reinforcements project and the Maine Power Reliability Program project.

New York

The New York Independent System Operator (ISO) forecasts installed capacity of 37,920 MW for the peak week demand forecast of 33,279 MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in an operable spare capacity margin of 1,634 MW for the peak week.

Supply-Side Resources

For the 2013 summer season, New York is accounting for two large generating station retirements totaling 1,072 MW. The Danskammer generating station (537 MW) is a dual fuel facility in the Hudson Valley that was severely damaged due to flooding from Hurricane Sandy in fall 2012. The station is officially retired and will be dismantled.

Three of the four units at the Dunkirk generation station will be mothballed for the 2013 summer season. Units 3 and 4 (435 MW) were mothballed in September 2012 while unit 2 (100 MW) will be operational until the end of May 2013. Unit 1 (100 MW) is projected to be operational until the 2015 summer season. The station is located in western New York and uses bituminous coal for fuel. The owner cites economic conditions as the reason for mothballing the station. Analysis shows that no reliability issues are expected due to these retirements.

New York currently has 1,578 MW of installed nameplate wind capacity, of which 259 MW is assumed available during the summer peak demand period.

Demand Response Resources

The New York ISO has had two load response programs for the New York Market in place since May 2001. The Special Case Resources (SCR) and Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) are programs in which customers are paid to reduce their consumption by either interrupting load or switching to emergency standby generation when requested by the New York ISO.

EDRP participants voluntarily curtail load when requested by the New York ISO. SCR participants must, as part of their agreement, curtail power usage, usually by reducing load when asked by the New York ISO.

Participation in the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) and Special Case Resources (SCR) programs represents an additional 1,354 MW of load relief available under peak conditions.

Transmission

The Hudson Transmission Partners project is planned to be in-service before the summer 2013 peak. The project consists of a back-to-back DC converter, located at the Bergen substation located in Ridgefield, New Jersey, connecting to the 345 kV substation at W. 49th St. in New York City via a 345 kV cable. This 660 MW interconnection to New Jersey will enhance reliability in New York City by providing additional import capability directly to the NYC load zone.

One of the two 345 kV phase angle regulators that control power flow on the Branchburg-Ramapo 500 kV line from PJM² to New York will be out of service for the summer period. There are no foreseen reliability issues due to this outage.

A 345/138 kV transformer is scheduled to return to service by the start of the summer season at the Newbridge Rd. substation on Long Island. This will allow the Neptune DC cable to return to its full capacity of 660 MW. It had been operating at half capacity since summer 2012.

Ontario

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) of Ontario is anticipating a spare operable capacity margin of 5,388 MW during the peak week (week beginning July 7, 2013). This is also the week with the lowest operable capacity margin.

Supply-Side Resources

Since the summer of 2012, the Conestogo Wind Energy Centre 1 (69 MW), the Summerhaven Wind Energy Centre (125 MW), the Thunder Bay Condensing Turbine Project (40 MW), the Erieau Wind (99 MW), the East Lake St. Clair Wind (99 MW) have been added for a total of 432 MW. No retirements occurred or are anticipated for this summer period.

Ontario presently has 1,924 MW of wind capacity of which 142 MW is assumed available during the June, July and August period.

Demand Response Resources

The majority of Ontario’s demand response programs are dispatchable, market driven programs. The two main initiatives are Dispatchable Loads and Demand Response 3 (DR3). The Dispatchable Loads bid into the market and are dispatched off like any resource. This program has a total capacity of roughly 900 MW. The DR3 program contracts loads that are dispatched off the system based on the supply cushion – the difference between demand and supply. This program has a capacity of 400 MW. One other program (Peaksaver) provides an additional 160 MW of capacity. The demand response total capacity is roughly 1,460 MW.

Transmission

For the summer 2013 period, Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be adequate with the planned transmission system enhancements and scheduled transmissions outages.

Québec

The Province of Québec is winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements. Québec is projecting weekly operable capacity margins in the range of 5,730 MW to 9,858 MW for the summer of 2013.

Supply-Side Resources

Since the summer of 2012, Hydro-Québec Production has added 577 MW of wind projects and 135 MW of small hydro & biomass projects for a total of 712 MW. With the retirement of the Gentilly Nuclear Unit 2 (675 MW) the resultant net change in Québec generation (from 2012 summer to 2013 summer) is +37 MW.

Québec presently has 1,714 MW of wind capacity; for this summer reliability assessment, Québec assumed that the entire wind generation capacity is 100% derated.

Demand Response Resources

The two interruptible load programs in Québec are not required for the summer period; they are available only during the winter period.

Transmission

No new significant transmission is being placed in service for the summer period. However, a number of transmission projects including 735-kV additions and wind generation integration projects are presently ongoing for in-service dates around the end of 2013.

Maritimes

The Maritime Provinces are also winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements. The Maritimes forecast spare operable capacity margins ranging from 1,217 MW to 2,190 MW over the summer 2013 period.

Supply-Side Resources

Since 2012 summer, the Maritimes have added the Port Haweksbury Biomass unit (61 MW) and 8 MW of wind generation; the resultant net change in the Maritimes generation (from 2012 summer to 2013 summer) is +65 MW. In addition, reliability is enhanced by the return of the Pt. Lepreau nuclear unit (660 MW) on October 23, 2012, after a five year refurbishment.

The Maritimes Area currently has approximately 833 MW of nameplate installed wind capacity. After applying derates, the wind capacity for the summer period is assumed to be 145 MW.

Demand Response Resources

Interruptible and dispatchable loads are forecast on a weekly basis and range between 171 MW and 213 MW, and are available for use when corrective action is required.

Transmission

The Maritimes transmission system is projected to be adequate to supply the demand requirements for the 2013 summer period. No major transmission additions are planned for the 2013 summer period.

Estimated Need for Operating Procedures

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience, unexpected plant outages, transmission constraints between and within regions, implementation of operating procedures and estimated impact of demand response programs.

In the probabilistic assessment, chronological system histories were developed by combining randomly generated operating histories of the generating units with the inter-area transfer limits and the hourly chronological loads. Consequently, the system was modeled in great detail with accurate recognition of random events, such as equipment failures, peak load forecast uncertainty, as well as the deterministic rules and policies that govern system operation.

Figure 1 shows the expected use of the indicated operating procedures under base case assumptions and the expected load level. The expected load level is based upon the probability-weighted average of seven load levels simulated.

See the attachment for Figure 1.

New York issues appeals and New England invokes Real-Time Emergency Generation prior to reducing 10-min Reserve

Use of operating procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages (reducing 30-minute reserve, voltage reduction, and reducing 10-minute reserve) is not anticipated during the 2013 summer period under expected conditions. On-going conservation efforts and demand-side management initiatives have resulted in approximately the same overall NPCC demand forecast as compared to last year. Additional resources and improved transmission capacity resulting from transmission projects planned to be available by this summer are additional factors that act to minimize the expected need for the use of these operating procedures in 2013.

Operating procedures are available to maintain reliability for the unlikely simultaneous combination of severe system conditions (such as reductions in anticipated resources, delay of expected transmission projects and/or additional constraints) materializing coincident with higher than expected loads (such as caused by a wide-spread, prolonged heat wave with high humidity and near record temperatures).

Operational Readiness

The Resource and Transmission Reliability Adequacy Assessments are key elements in determining NPCC’s ability to meet the forecast demands of the summer period. To be prepared to deal with the constantly changing operating conditions on the power system, as well as contingencies, NPCC routinely conducts daily and week-ahead planning calls between system operators and neighboring regions to coordinate short-term system operations.

NPCC continues to refine and expand its situational awareness capability to include wide-area visual displays of NPCC and its adjacent Regional Entities to further enable NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions.

Geomagnetic Storms

Solar activity so far during this solar cycle has been substantially lower than many predictions. An increase in activity to more normal sunspot levels is a very real possibility during the summer and fall of 2013, during the expected maximum of the solar cycle. This peak period is anticipated to occur in September or October of this year. Typically, solar activity is quite volatile during the year of maximum sunspots. Although the current sunspot number counts are substantially lower than expectations, sudden bursts of unanticipated sunspot complex growth are to be expected, with possible difficult-to-predict effects in the near-Earth space environment.

Overall, the summer and fall of 2013 is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) activity. However, there will be a risk for new hot sunspot complexes to form and produce geomagnetic storming with attendant minor to moderate GIC activity.

Past experiences have shown the serious effect that geomagnetic disturbances can have on the NPCC bulk power system. These effects can include transformer failures, and unintentional tripping of transmission lines (outages) due to GICs.

Since 1989, NPCC has operating procedures³ in-place to mitigate the effects of GICs resulting from geomagnetic storms. NPCC system operators receive, on a continual twenty-four hour by seven day basis, the status of solar activity and geomagnetic storm alerts.

After reviewing the available data, the system operator evaluates the situation and enacts appropriate measures designed to protect system elements such as transformers, transmission lines, generators, and other critical facilities.

NPCC

NPCC is one of eight Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada and portions of Mexico. The NPCC geographic region includes the State of New York and the six New England states as well as the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick⁴ and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by more than 55 million people. In total, from a net energy for load perspective, NPCC is approximately 45% U.S. and 55% Canadian. With regard to Canada, approximately 70% of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region.

NPCC coordinates international electric power grid reliability for Northeastern North America. NPCC annually performs comprehensive seasonal assessments of electricity supply and demand reliability for eastern Canada, New England and the City and State of New York. These assessments require months of detailed preparation and are performed with the participation of regional electricity power grid operators and planners.

Additional information regarding NPCC is available at: www.npcc.org.

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¹ Based on summer nameplate ratings.

² Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection

³ See: https://www.npcc.org/Standards/Procedures/c-15.pdf

⁴ Includes the connected part of northern and eastern Maine.