NPCC Winter 2014-2015 Reliability Assessment Media Release

NPCC Assessment Concludes Adequate

Electricity Supplies Projected for this Winter

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) today approved the results of its annual winter reliability assessment. The comprehensive assessment projects that the region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter and will meet system reliability criteria.

Based on forecasts of peak electric demand, available electricity generating resources and transmission configurations, the assessment concludes that New England, New York, Ontario, Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces will have adequate electricity generation and transmission capability to meet consumer demand this winter. The assessment also confirms that strategies and procedures are in place to address operational issues and emergencies if they occur within the NPCC region.

The forecast NPCC coincident peak demand of 110,742 MW (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) is projected to occur in mid-January and is estimated to be approximately the same as last winter’s. Over 1,100 MW of new capacity will be available during this winter’s peak period.

In New England, where the area is highly dependent on natural gas for electricity generation, ISO New England has in-place an enhanced Winter Reliability Program to: provide incentives for oil and dual-fuel electricity generators (units that run on either natural gas or oil); increase oil inventories; encourage natural gas-fired generators to contract for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to augment pipeline gas; and for new demand response resources to be available when needed. New England’s winter peak demand is forecast to be slightly lower than last year’s due to increased demand response resources combined with projected lower economic growth. In addition, FERC recently approved certain enhancements to market rules and communication protocols to enhance operational flexibility.

In New York, a cold weather procedure was developed last winter to monitor natural gas nominations, oil inventories and expected oil replenishment schedules for all dual-fuel, natural gas-fired and oil-fired generators prior to each cold day. This procedure helped maintain reliability despite extended periods of extreme cold weather. This procedure will be in place again this winter as well as improved monitoring of the natural gas supply system to enhance planning by the New York ISO. New York’s winter peak is projected to be approximately the same as last year’s.

All of the Canadian provinces are expected to have sufficient electricity supplies to meet winter electricity demand.

Quebec’s peak demand forecast for this winter is 750 MW higher than last winter. This increase is mainly attributed to higher peak demand for space heating in the residential sector. Over 90% of Quebec’s installed capacity is hydropower. The resources to supply an extreme weather forecast scenario for this province has been evaluated and operating margins are anticipated to be acceptable. Since last winter over 1,100 MW of new capacity has been installed.

Ontario is also expected to have sufficient electricity supplies despite a decrease of 860 MW of total capacity since last winter. The Province’s peak demand forecast is expected to decrease by about 130 MW. About 30% of Ontario’s installed capacity is natural-gas fired. While the province has not experienced fuel availability issues during past winter months, Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator is working to improve coordination between the natural gas pipelines and generators.

The Maritimes winter peak demand forecast is approximately the same as last year’s. About 120 MW of additional new capacity is expected to be online this winter. As part of its winter electricity demand planning, dual-fueled units will be required to have sufficient supplies of oil to enable sustained operation in the event of natural gas supply interruptions. Only about 7% of the Maritimes’ installed capacity is natural gas-fired and 4% dual-fueled.

NPCC’s, assessments consider a wide range of scenarios through the application of probabilistic methods, including weather conditions derived from over 40 years of data, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within areas, delays in expected in-service dates of planned facilities, the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions as well as shifts in consumer electricity usage.

NPCC’s Reliability Assessment for Winter 2014/2015 is available at: npcc.org

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