Summer 2014 Media Release

Annual Assessment Forecasts

Adequate Electricity Supplies for this Summer

(Assessment covers New England, the City and State of New York and Eastern Canada)

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) today released the results of its annual summer reliability assessment. The assessment concludes that the Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

The assessment considered three basic conditions: 1) severe system limitations that included extended unit maintenance, higher than expected unit outages, reductions in demand-response programs and operating limitations assumed in neighboring regions; 2) extreme weather characterized by wide-spread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity and near-record temperatures; and 3) forecast peak summer electricity demand.

“The overall NPCC forecast for electricity demand is approximately the same as last summer’s forecast, as it continues to be influenced by the economic outlook, ongoing conservation measures, improvements in efficiency and contributions from demand response programs,” said Edward Schwerdt, President and CEO of NPCC.

The assessment indicates that NPCC will have adequate generation and transmission capability for the summer period, even with the phase-out of the Ontario coal units and the retirement of New England’s Salem Harbor power station.

“This is a sizable loss of generating capacity. However, Regional reliability has been maintained through planning coordination, enhanced transmission capacity, and some additional generation,” added Schwerdt.

The Region’s transmission infrastructure will be improved with several significant projects expected to be in-service this summer: 1) New England transmission line additions associated with the Maine Power Reliability Program; 2) the Greater Springfield Massachusetts transmission reinforcements; and 3) the restoration of full power transfer capability between Pennsylvania and New York.

For New York City and throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast. This also holds true for Ontario and New England. Finally, the winter peaking Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity demand by a wide margin.

Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability for the unlikely simultaneous combination of severe system conditions – such as unplanned outage of generating resources and/or delay of expected transmission projects – coincident with higher than expected electricity demands from a wide-spread, prolonged heat wave with high humidity. These operating procedures could include calling on demand response resources to curtail energy use or importing emergency power from neighboring regions.

A summary of the NPCC 2014 Summer Reliability Assessment is available at: www.npcc.org

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