Summer Reliability Assessment Forecasts Adequate Electricity Supplies

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc.’s (NPCC) annual summer reliability assessment forecasts the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer. The overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is forecasted to be approximately 105,000 MW, which is approximately 200 MW lower than last summer. A total installed capacity of about 158,000 MW is projected to be in place to meet electricity demand in the Region. NPCC’s installed capacity has decreased by approximately 805 MW from last summer. The largest capacity decrease occurred in New England, due to the planned retirement of the Mystic Units.

Forecasts also indicate sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. NPCC’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) this summer is estimated to range from approximately 7,000 MW to over 18,000 MW.

“NPCC’s forecast summer peak demand reduction is based on several factors, including the continuing impacts of rooftop solar, energy efficiency initiatives, and demand-side management programs,” said Charles Dickerson, NPCC President and Chief Executive Officer. “In addition, the system upgrades in New York and New England improve the Region’s reliability by addressing transmission security needs.”

New England, the state of New York, and the Canadian Provinces of Ontario, Québec, and the Maritimes are forecasted to have adequate supplies of electricity this summer. Due to its winter peaking nature, Québec is expected to meet forecast electricity demand by a wide margin enabling transfers of surplus electricity supplies to other Areas of the Region, if needed.

The assessment considered a wide range of associated risks including higher than expected demand, forecast demand uncertainty, unexpected generator plant outages, transmission constraints both between neighboring Regions and within NPCC, the implementation of operating procedures, estimated impact of demand response programs, and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.

“Established operating procedures are available to keep electric supply and demand in balance for a variety of system conditions, such as an extended heat wave coupled with high humidity,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC Chief Engineer and Vice President. “In addition, solar storms are expected to increase in occurrence and severity throughout this summer. NPCC is prepared to initiate its procedures designed to mitigate the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the power system.

Throughout the summer, NPCC will continue to monitor the operating conditions on the bulk power system. As part of these efforts, NPCC conducts daily and week-ahead calls between NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions, coordinate planned maintenance, and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions. In addition, NPCC supports industry-wide reliability and security coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.

The NPCC 2024 Summer Reliability Assessment is available at: Seasonal Assessment (npcc.org).

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