NPCC’s Winter Reliability Assessment Indicates Adequate Electricity Supplies Under Forecasted Conditions

Publish Date

December 12, 2023

(The Assessment Covers New York, New England, and Eastern Canada)

New York, NY – 12/12/23 – Northeast Power Coordinating Council’s (NPCC’s) annual winter reliability assessment forecasts its region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter to meet projected peak demand under a variety of forecasted weather conditions.

NPCC projects the regional forecast coincident peak demand of 112,217 MW (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) will occur the week of January 21, 2024. This demand is estimated to be 1,578 MW higher than last winter’s forecast. An installed winter capacity of 169,291 MW is projected to be in place to meet the forecasted electricity demand, which is 1,257 MW less than last winter.

After accounting for transmission constraints, NPCC’s assessment estimates the region’s spare operable capacity under forecasted conditions during the winter period will be substantial, with capacity over and above reserve requirements, ranging from approximately 16,400 to 33,200 MW.

“NPCC’s assessment indicates adequate capacity margins and transmission capability to meet the region’s peak demand and required operating reserves under forecasted conditions this winter,” said Charles Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer of NPCC. “The transmission system enhancements in place for this winter will result in greater transfer capability, improving the overall reliability of the region.”

Recent reports have underscored the impacts that extreme weather events may have on regional reliability. Because natural gas continues to be the predominant fuel source in New England to produce electricity, ISO New England continues to closely monitor factors affecting the deliverability of natural gas throughout the winter reliability assessment period. ISO New England has winter reliability programs in place to address regional energy security risks if prolonged extreme weather occurs.

New York, Ontario, and Québec forecast adequate resources to meet winter demand. The Maritimes show a limited likelihood of using operating procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages, primarily driven by their forecast load and corresponding reserve margins.

“The assessment found that operating procedures are sufficient to provide reliability if reduced resources, higher than expected demands, and extreme weather conditions materialize,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Chief Engineer and Vice President of Reliability Services. “NPCC’s coordination of communications among system operators continues to play a key role in maintaining regional reliability.”

NPCC’s reliability assessment considered a wide range of scenarios through the application of probabilistic methods, including weather conditions derived from over 40 years of data, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within areas, delays in expected in-service dates of planned facilities, the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions, and shifts in consumer electricity demand.

NPCC’s Reliability Assessment for Winter 2023-2024 is available at: www.npcc.org/library/reports/seasonal-assessment